But the threat posed by omicron is not the only unknown risk in play. True, it is a game of chance: the virus is statistically just as likely to mutate against vaccines in a way that makes it more lethal, and it is simply too early to say anything conclusive about the new strain. Some immunologists suggest that this could turn out to be the case with omicron. Every time it alters itself to evade our immunity, it risks mutating in a way that makes it less deadly. In fact, it may be that we are entering the end game with the virus. So too does an early real-world study by the UK Health Security Agency suggesting that boosters restore vaccine protection to a significant extent. While South Africa has a younger population than Britain and clinical data remains limited, the fact that its ICU occupancy rates are lower now than during its summer delta peak points in the opposite direction. In particular, the projections of 75,000 omicron deaths by May are based on the assumption that the variant causes as severe disease as delta and boosters have low efficacy. Still, once again, our Covid response is seemingly more informed by modelling than evidence. Its sheer contagiousness means that, even if it is far less virulent than delta, it could in theory cause a surge in hospitalisations and deaths. Early studies suggest that vaccines are less effective against the new strain. There is no doubt that omicron is a potentially serious setback. We cannot go on with a superficially populist Tory Government that will entertain the drastic action of lockdowns but not radical NHS reform. We cannot go on pursuing Covid Plan Bs, Cs and Ds without a sensible cost-benefit analysis that weighs the harms and uncertainties of the virus against those of the restrictions. We cannot go on being plunged into panic by pessimistic modelling that has consistently been proved wrong in the past. ![]() ![]() As a majority-vaccinated country, we cannot go on suffering the permanent threat of lockdown restrictions, for fear the health service could be overwhelmed. ![]() Amid this fresh uncertainty, one thing is clear: we cannot go on living like this.
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